Fay and Irma Storm Animation

     Florida is prone to high impact precipitation events, particularly those associated with tropical cyclones. Over the past two decades there have been at least two wide spread flooding events including Tropical Storm Fay (2008) and Hurricane Irma (2017). Amounts in excess of 20 inches were reported at many locations in east-central Florida associated with Tropical storm Fay (Stewart and Bevin 2009) while storm totals from Hurricane Irma ranged from 12-14 inches (Cangialosi et al. 2021). Flooding from Irma in Jacksonville, FL was compounded by a combination of storm surge and high river discharge in the St Johns estuary (Juarez et al. 2022). The Space Coast region is susceptible to flooding that can be compounded by high coastal water levels which develop in the IRL estuary concurrently with heavy rainfall.

     What might these tropical cyclones look like in the future?  High-resolution (a few km) coupled model simulations (atmosphere, ocean, and waves) can help us answer this question. The model, developed by the Argonne-led TREXO project will be used to simulate these two hurricanes. The model will operate at a spatial resolution of a few kilometers. We will then conduct what are referred to as 'storyline simulations',  which are essentially a future forecast (Schar et al. 1996; Rasmussen et al. 2011), to investigate how these storms respond to a world that is warming and moistening. The  procedure includes an addition of a mean climate anomaly to the present-day conditions based on projected changes from Earth System Models. We will use future scenarios (e.g., mid-century for the shared socioeconomic pathway 5) projected by Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models including the Department of Energy's Exascale Energy Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3 that will be available soon.