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Email: paleolab@fit.edu
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Nicole Sublette Mosblech
PhD candidate
Email: nsublett@my.fit.edu
Research Project
Shifting baselines
A key question for biologists, conservationists and resource planners is what induces sudden changes in ecological systems. Do ecological shifts typically arise from sudden changes in climate (i.e., a proportional change) or can they occur after a period of steady, incremental change, when a climatic threshold is exceeded? I am testing these predictions in the tropical Andes, one of Earth’s richest regions of biodiversity. I compare the indices of climate change measured in stable oxygen isotopes of stalagmites with detailed records of vegetation change from fossil pollen of lake sediments. In this way, I can investigate the potential cause of rapid vegetation change and the baseline nature of vegetation responses to climate change over the last 15,000 years. I am also interested in whether plant communities were more prone to abrupt change after humans arrived in the landscape and the extent to which modern plant communities can be considered 'natural.' My research ultimately aims to improve conservation and climate change mitigation plans by contributing necessary information on vegetation responses to past climate events.
Publications
Bush, M.B. & N.A.S. Mosblech. 2011. Quaternary tropical plant extinction: A paleoecological view from the Neotropics. In L. Hannah & T.E. Lovejoy (eds.) Saving a million species: Extinction risk from climate change. p. 199-214. Island Press, Washington DC. Get a copy.
Mosblech, N.A.S., M.B. Bush & R. van Woesik. 2011. On metapopulations and microrefugia: paleoecological insights. Journal of Biogeography 38(3): 419-429. Get a copy.
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